Ethiopia’s official announcement of the **completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)** has sparked fresh concerns and **strategic analysis in Israeli media**, raising the question: **Is a military confrontation with Egypt inevitable?**
In a detailed report by the Israeli economic daily *Globes*, analysts warned that **Egypt views the dam as a direct threat** to its **national water security**, with over **90% of its water supply depending on the Nile River**, of which the **Blue Nile contributes 80%**.
Egyptian Water Resources Minister **Hani Sewilam** responded by rejecting the move, stating that Ethiopia completed the dam **without consensus or agreement** with downstream nations Egypt and Sudan, violating **international law**.
In an attempt to ease tensions, **Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed** invited Egyptian and Sudanese officials to attend the dam’s official inauguration in **September**, stressing that any harm to Egypt or Sudan would be seen as **harm to Ethiopia**.
🧠 Israeli Analysts: A Strategic Power Play
The Israeli report noted that GERD is the **largest hydroelectric project in Africa**, standing at **145 meters tall and 1.8 km long**, representing **a significant geopolitical shift** in East Africa.
Strategic analyst **Shmuel Almas** emphasized that Egypt’s concern lies not only in the dam’s existence, but in **its scale and geopolitical implications**. Israeli researcher **Dr. Michael Barak** went further, warning of a potential **military escalation**, citing Egypt’s historical stance and quoting late President **Anwar Sadat**: “Better to die in battle than die of thirst.”
💼 Global Powers Curbing Escalation
The report added that **China’s strategic investment in Ethiopia** — especially in **radar and defense technologies** — acts as a **deterrent to any Egyptian military intervention**. Meanwhile, Egypt faces **serious economic hardships**, being the **third-largest borrower from the IMF**, which further complicates its decision-making.
As GERD nears full operation, regional tensions are expected to rise, unless a **diplomatic breakthrough** is achieved among all parties involved.
| Keyword | Category |
|---|---|
| GERD Ethiopia | International Politics |
| Egypt Ethiopia Conflict | Middle East Affairs |
| Nile Water Dispute | Water Security |
| Abiy Ahmed GERD | Africa News |
| Hani Sewilam Statement | Government Responses |
| China Ethiopia Alliance | Global Alliances |
| Grand Renaissance Dam | Energy and Infrastructure |
| Egypt Water Crisis | Environmental News |
| Israeli Media on GERD | Media Analysis |
| Middle East Water Conflict | Regional Security |